An off-season of blockbuster trades has given us some interesting new faces in new places. The Red Sox gave up their two top prospects among others to get Chris Sale and the Nationals did something similar to get Adam Eaton from the White Sox, but maybe the most interesting trade for fantasy baseball team owners, was the trade conjured up between the Mariners and the Diamondbacks that sent Jean Segura to the Pacific Northwest. Seguara had a very productive 2016 season and is currently ranked 8th in the industry average rankings according to FantasyPros, I’m not as high on him however, I expect him to struggle and have him ranked 11th in my shortstop rankings. Before you think I’m crazy, let me explain why.
This is the stat line Segura produced in 2016, however, I am not convinced we are going to see this same type of production from Segura as long as he is playing in Seattle.
Let’s begin by discussing the park he will be playing in, Safeco Field Using Fangraphs Park Factor rating, we are able to tell how different parks play in comparison to one another. The average Park Factor rating is 100, which is what is considered to be neutral. The spectrum ranges from 95 (four stadiums) to 118 (Coors Field), however Coors Field is really an abnormality, as 105 (two stadiums) is the next highest rating. Safeco Field, home of the Seattle Mariners, plays as pitcher friendly, as evidenced by Fangraphs Park Factor rating of 96. In comparison, in 2016, Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks, had a 105 Fangraphs Park Factor rating, which makes Chase Field extremely hitter friendly. To illustrate this further, Safeco Field plays like Petco Park (both had a 96 Park Factor rating), and Chase Field plays like Fenway Park (105 Park Factor ratings). Based on park factor alone, expect the power numbers of Segura to drop.
Now let’s take a look at some advanced stats, Segura hit fly balls at a 27.8% rate, and 13.5% of those fly balls ended up leaving the ballpark. There is every chance his fly ball rate could stay the same, even though it was nearly 4% better than his previous career high, but don’t expect the homerun-to-flyball rate to stay there too, at least not in pitcher-friendly Safeco Field.
On top of my concerns with the ballpark not being as hitter friendly, Segura will also being going to a team that doesn’t steal as much as he may be used to. Last year, the Diamondbacks were in the top 5 in baseball among teams with the most stolen base attempts, meanwhile The Mariners? Not so much. They were 24th in attempts. Don’t expect Segura to steal nearly as many bases this year as he did last, which will be a huge blow to owners, especially to those in rotisserie leagues.
Now let’s check out this year what may be in store for this year. For 2017, the Steamer projections have him at:
Myself, I have him at:
As you can see, Steamer has him regressing very hard, coming into a huge drop in basically all major offensive stats, excluding RBI. I expect the same type of regression, maybe even a little more so than the projections steamer has.
I foresee Segura regressing pretty hard in 2017 as I don’t think a lot of his peripherals from last year are sustainable. Moving to such a pitcher friendly park is really going to hurt his power numbers, yet i believe many people are simply drafting over Segura based on last years performance. I have him ranked as my 11th ranked shortstop, which is about 3 spots lower the the industry standard as of this writing. I remember how good Seurat was last year, but sometimes the grass isn’t always greener on the other side, or in the other ball park in this case.