PGA DFS: Shell Houston Open

This week will feature a much stronger field on DraftKings than the Puerto Rico Open featured. After a week that featured no Top 50 players in the OWGR, we have 15 in the field this week that are looking to fine tune their game heading into the Masters. 

The course is a Par 72 that plays over 7,440 yards. Given the length of the course, there is a much greater emphasis on driving distance than we’ve seen in quite a few weeks. In the last 3 years, no one in the Top 3 has finished outside of the top 30% in driving distance. There’s a premium on approach shots as well, with over 50% of approach shots coming from 125-200 yards. As finishing position gets worse, approach shots get worse. The course also features some of the most difficult Par 4s on the PGA Tour so there is even more of a premium on Par 5 birdie or better percentage than usual, to make up for potential bogeys on the Par 4s.

The Clear Studs ($10,000+)

Jordan Spieth ($12,000) is the most expensive play this week by $1,300 over Jon Rahm ($10,700). It will be interesting to see how ownership shakes out as the week goes on, but it’s hard to fade either of these guys. Spieth has a runner-up and a 13th place finish his last two times here and has elite proximity numbers in our target distance this week. But, Rahm’s distance and Par 5 scoring is superior to almost everyone in this range. This doesn’t seem to be a week with terribly tight salaries so the decision between these two will be an ownership decision.

Henrik Stenson ($10,400) was the runner up at this tournament last year. However, the last time we saw Stenson, he was half naked and hitting balls out of a hazard before putting with his wedge and no shoes. It might be wrong to fade him, but with such good recent form surrounding his price, I’ll pass.

Rickie Fowler ($10,000) has a great combination of recent form and course history. He’ll likely be right at the top of the ownership rankings when all is said and done this week. All signs point to him performing well but being in line with the field for Fowler is not the optimal play this week.

Mid-Price Plays ($8,000-$10,000)

There are plenty of excellent options in the mid tier this week. Phil Mickelson ($8,900) is a cash game lock this week. He’s finished in the Top 25 every year he’s played the Shell Houston Open at this track and has 5 Top 25s in his last 7 starts. Mickelson doesn’t have elite distance off the tee but has still manged to score birdie or better on 50% of his Par 5s this year.

If you’re looking for Phil’s stats with less ownership, Daniel Berger ($8,800) is a solid pivot this week. He has basically the same stat line as Mickelson but will see a much smaller portion of ownership go his way as he’s sandwiched between Phil and our next play of the week.

Russell Henley ($8,700) is another great cash game play this week. He will have decent ownership numbers, but 3/3 Top 25s here coupled with his distance off the tee and proximity stats make him worth it.

Value Plays ($7,000-$8,000)

Tony Finau ($7,100) is a $3,600 discount off of Jon Rahm and has very comparable stats so far this year. That’s not to say that Finau should be taken in a 1v1 situation over Rahm, but similar stats for that discount is something to pay attention to.

BOB% Par 5 BOB% Driving Distance Prox 50-125 Prox 125-200
Jon Rahm 24.40% 58.00 305.8 16.3 24.0
Tony Finau 23.19% 50.00 306.6 21.5 27.0

 

Luke List ($7,300) is another interesting play. He finished 27th at the Shell Houston Open last year and has the best driving distance of anyone in the field. He’s scoring as well as anyone on Par 5s this year as well. If List’s ball striking is there, he can make a run towards the top of the leader-board.

GPP Dart Throws (Sub-$7,000)

JT Poston ($6,600) has posted 3 Top 25s in his last 5 starts. He’s also scored 7 of his last 12 rounds in the 60s. Poston has some of the best overall scoring potential of anyone in this range. He’s worth sprinkling into GPP lineups.

Ollie Schniederjans ($6,700) is another guy worth considering in this range. He has excellent distance off the tee to go along with his Par 5 scoring. When we look for discrepancies in pricing and odds, this is what we look for. Ollie has the 27th best odds to win according to Vegas but is priced under $7,000.

As always, you can stay up to date on all things PGA by following me on Twitter @MattJonesTFR. You can also head over to iTunes to subscribe to Bogey Free.