PGA DFS: RBC Heritage

Even though it feels like there should be a break after The Masters, the grind of the PGA never stops. Sergio Garcia finally earned that elusive major win in a playoff with Justin Rose. It was a great tournament from start to finish despite Dustin Johnson’s absence. The tour heads to Harbour Town Golf Links for the RBC Heritage this week.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a Pete Dye designed Par 71 that plays just over 7,000 yards. The description alone should lead you to a couple realizations as a PGA DFS player. A Par 71 course means that there will be 11 Par 4s instead of the usual 10. The yardage of Harbour Town puts this as one of the shorter courses on Tour. All of that adds up to the following key stats:

  • Greens in Regulation
  • Driving Accuracy
  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green

The Clear Studs ($10,000+)

Matt Kuchar ($11,500) leads the way in salary this week. This is by far the highest salary that we’ve seen this year for Kuchar on DraftKings. He’s been in the Top 30 in six of his last eight starts, including a T4 in the Masters this past weekend. His Strokes Gained: Approach numbers certainly leave something to be desired. Kuchar is currently 152nd on Tour in that category. He’s a fade candidate for me.

Russell Henley ($10,700) is another guy this week that is seeing a huge jump in salary from what we’ve become accustomed to on DraftKings. Henley is one of the hottest golfers in the world. After winning his way into The Masters at Houston, he put together a T11 finish at Augusta. Henley currently sits in the top 35 of every Strokes Gained category except for Strokes Gained: Around the Green. He will be popular this week, but he should perform well given his style on the course and his current form.

Brandt Snedeker ($10,500) has been in great form since missing the cut at the Genesis Open back in February in regards to where he’s finished. However, there are definitely red flags that make me lean towards fading him. He’s outside the Top 50 in both of the Strokes Gained categories we are targeting this week. Snedeker has never played particularly well on Pete Dye courses and it shows in his results at the RBC in the past.

Last year’s winner, Branden Grace ($10,000) poses another interesting decision. Grace was 13th and 87th in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around the Green last year, respectively. This year, however, he’s 119th and 188th on Tour in those categories. His price tag makes him a difficult play this week.

 

Mid Range Guys ($8,000-$10,000)

Bill Haas ($9,100) is one of my favorite plays this week regardless of salary. He can struggle from time to time with driving accuracy but golfers have gotten away with that at the RBC in the past. Haas immediately jumps out because this is a course that can be picked apart by ball striking. Haas is currently 24th and 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around the Green, respectively. Even if Haas ends up chalky this week, I will be well overweight on him.

Kevin Kisner ($9,700) basically checks every box that we’re looking for this week. However, everyone is going to know that and he should be chalky. This is a situation where you need to decide to go way overweight or not on him. There will be no value in being in line with the field on Kisner this week.

Martin Kaymer ($9,500) played exceptionally well down the stretch on Sunday to finish T16 at the Masters. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Valspar Championship in 2016. Kaymer is one of the best golfers in the world when it comes to Par 4 birdie or better percentage.

Pat Perez ($8,100) has a good combination of greens in regulation and scrambling for his price tag this week. Perez is also reasonably accurate off the tee. He could get lost in the middle of some other popular players and see low ownership this week.

 

Value Plays ($7,000-$8,000)

 

Jim Furyk ($7,900) has finished in the top 8 in three of his last four starts at this tournament. Unfortunately, he’s coming off of a missed cut in Augusta and hasn’t finished in the Top 25 since November. If he can put together some magic based on his course history here, he might be worth a GPP flyer but nothing more.

Billy Horschel ($7,600) is an interesting play this week. For his price, he has excellent greens in regulation and scrambling numbers on the year so far. Shane Lowry ($7,500) is coming off of a disappointing missed cut at the Masters. He also has a good combination of greens in regulation and scrambling in the value plays.

 

Bargain Play of the Week (Sub-$7,000)

 

Brian Stuard ($6,800) is my favorite bargain play of the week. This isn’t a week where you necessarily need to go to low in salary but if lineup construction goes that way, Stuard is a good play. He finished T36 last week at the Masters and has made 8-of-11 cuts so far this year. He is currently 13th in proximity to the hole which will bode well given the size of the greens at Harbour Town.

 

Stay up to date with all thing PGA this week by following me on Twitter @MattJonesTFR. As always, you can also head over to iTunes to subscribe to Bogey Free where Evan Cheney and I discuss even more DraftKings plays for the week.