Spring ADP Report: Wide Receivers

The NFL Draft is in the books. By now, people have had a chance to digest and process all the rookies and their landing spots. The most important effect of the NFL Draft being over is that we have more information as we head into MFL10s and dynasty drafts than we did a few weeks ago. We’ll take a look at wide receivers and see how these drafts are shaking out as we make our way through May.

Elite Tier

When it comes to the elite tier, we’re looking at the usual suspects to round out the top five. Their ADPs have remained relatively steady over the last few weeks. If you’re picking on the 12-13 turn in any format there’s not much of a chance these players are falling to you. Nothing in free agency or the draft impacted this tier at all. Barring a catastrophic injury, these ADPs will be very stable throughout draft season.

Player Week Before Draft Week After Draft
Brown, Antonio PIT WR 3.99 3.98
Beckham, Odell NYG WR 5.19 5.45
Jones, Julio ATL WR 6.47 6.23
Evans, Mike TBB WR 6.51 6.84
Green, A.J. CIN WR 8.42 8.24

Rounds 2-3

In Rounds 2 through 3, there are no rookies in sight. In fact, most of these receivers are in similar situations as they were heading into last season. One of the biggest differences from this time last year is the presence of Michael Thomas as the WR6 overall. He was a talented rookie going into a good situation but he made the best of it in New Orleans. The coaching staff in New Orleans was so impressed that the Saints were willing to part ways with Brandin Cooks.

Speaking of Cooks, he’s one of two wide receivers that changed teams over the off-season in this range. Cooks and Alshon Jeffery, the other receiver that swapped uniforms this off-season, have significant question marks as they head into the 2017 season. Will Cooks be able to get enough attention to be fantasy relevant in New England? Will Jeffery stay healthy and reach his upside?

Top Rookies

Corey Davis was drafted 5th overall by the Tennessee Titans this year. He is a 6’ 3”, 209 pound receiver with a 74th percentile SpeedScore and a 96th percentile College Dominator Score according to his Player Profiler page. The week heading into the draft, he was being drafted around the 78 spot in MFL10s. He has moved up a full round and a half since being drafted. Remember your high school science teacher saying something about actions having equal and opposite reactions? His teammate Rishard Matthews’ ADP has gone down a round in the past week.

Another example of Newton’s Third Fantasy Draft Law goes to a pair of wide receivers for the Los Angeles Chargers (yes, I put San Diego at first…we’re all adjusting). Mike Williams was drafted 7th overall this year. The 6’ 4” 218 lb. Clemson product boasts the same SpeedScore but didn’t dominate his team’s market share like Davis did. Williams didn’t quite see the boost that Davis did in ADP but Tyrell, the other Williams, is dropping like a rock. He’s gone from 80th in ADP to 97th in the week following the draft.

Flag Planting

Once you get out of the first three or four rounds it’s time to take a stance. The first three rounds go in a relatively scripted manner for most leagues. Most of the top twenty wide receivers, seem to go in a relatively static order in most drafts. As you go through the next thirty wide receivers, there is plenty of variation with where the wide receivers fall. After the top 50, it’s like the Wild West.

Wide Receiver Range Standard Deviation of MFL10 Picks
1-20 3.28
21-50 10.89
50-75 19.45

 

I call this the flag planting range because you need to make a call and reach for a player if you really like them. As ADP becomes less predictable, you need to make sense of who is worthy of a spot as your WR3 or Flex. We’ll spend much of the off-season analyzing these players further, but there are a few that stick out as reach candidates.

NAME Current MFL10 ADP
Pryor, Terrelle WAS WR 42.09
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 43.94
Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 54.6
Marshall, Brandon NYG WR 65.75
Coleman, Corey CLE WR 67.04
Matthews, Jordan PHI WR 84.29
Parker, DeVante MIA WR 88.34
Thielen, Adam MIN WR 107.75

In the coming weeks, we’ll dive into some of the players in the WR21-50 range to see who you should be targeting when draft season rolls around.