The death of Sunday Night Football on the main slate coupled with some high profile QBs on bye should make Week 5 an interesting one. Matt Ryan, Trevor Siemian, Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins all have the week off. There’s still a Milly to win along with other GPP offerings from DK, though, so let’s break down the main slate.
Dak Prescott ($6,800) and Aaron Rodgers ($8,100) lead the way in FanShare tags as of Thursday night. With the exception of Carson Palmer ($5,900), no one is terribly close to their popularity on the main slate. Prescott and Rodgers are in the same game, and it appears that the public believes this game goes over on Sunday. Nearly 70% of the bets have been on the over so far, according to Airyards.com. There’s a case to be made for all of the popular options this week, but we’re here for the pivots. Where can you differentiate this week?
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,400) is a good place to start. He’s going to be in Pittsburgh (for you Home/Road truthers) and the Steelers have a higher implied point total than Green Bay. Yet, he’s only had about 7 start tags on FanShare so far this week. You can stack him up with any of the options and give yourself a shot at a low-owned play that returns great value this week.
Apparently I’m way out on an island but Tyrod Taylor ($5,000) is appealing at his price. Tyrod has an excellent floor week in and week out and this week is no exception. Last season, Taylor hit 15 or more points (3x value at this week’s price) in 80% of his games and hit 20 or more in 40% of his games.
Le’Veon Bell ($9,500) and Todd Gurley ($8,000) are the clear chalky expensive options this week. They’re both averaging nearly 28 opportunities (carries and targets) per game so far this season. Locking in that safe volume floor is vital in cash games. The cheap chalk seems to be shaking out to Andre Ellington ($4,600) and Duke Johnson ($4,900) this week. They each saw double digit targets last week and should continue to see volume in the passing game.
Melvin Gordon ($6,000) isn’t getting a ton of love this week, but his volume along with his price makes him a GPP target this week. Locking in 18 or so opportunities at $6k presents a rare opportunity in DFS. Gordon broke 18 DK Points (3x value) in 7-of-13 games last season.
Isaiah Crowell ($4,700) is an interesting GPP leverage play this week off of Duke Johnson. He hasn’t done a ton this season, but he’s averaging 13.5 opportunities per game and should be able to do more against the Jets at home than he has against other opponents. This isn’t a cash play by any means, but being slightly overweight than the field can pay off with Crowell this week.
Paying up to be contrarian is always interesting in GPPs and Ezekiel Elliot ($8,800) is a great play for many reasons. He’s at home, and although Dallas is a slight underdog, that hasn’t mattered much in the past. Unlike many running backs, he actually has a positive split when Dallas is getting points in a game. In addition, he provides excellent tournament leverage off of Dak Prescott and Dez Bryant, both of whom will be chalky this week. Load up on Elliot this week in any large field tournament.
Dez Bryant ($6,500) and the Green Bay receivers might sound like a hipster band from Brooklyn, but they’re shaping up to be the chalk this week. Oh, and they’re in the same game. Dez just seems completely mispriced in a week where this Green Bay-Dallas game looks like it has a good chance to hit the over. He wasn’t terribly efficient last week, but the volume is there. Dez is averaging .6 TDs with Dak at the helm. Jordy Nelson ($8,100) and Randall Cobb ($6,700) are enticing in the same game as well. With uncertainty in the backfield, it appears that the targets will be more condensed than usual this week for Aaron Rodgers.
Jaron Brown ($4,500) is being talked up a bit throughout the industry but I’m not completely sold on him. His price is certainly appealing but his floor is nonexistant. The volume is there for the Arizona Cardinals as a whole (136 targets over the past three games), but Brown has disappointed in big spots before. I’m conflicted on Jaron Brown so I think I’ll relegate him to a few GPP lineups this week. Even his splits when John Brown isn’t involved don’t inspire a ton of confidence.
Identifying misplaced lines in Vegas is one way of finding low-owned, high upside plays in DFS. This week is no exception, and I’m willing to put my money on the fact that this San Francisco – Indianapolis game goes over. If that holds true, I think there are a few reasonable options at WR here. TY Hilton ($6,000) is a good bet to hit value against the putrid 49ers defense. From about 11 yards to 30 yards, San Francisco has been terrible at allowing catches compared to league average. After a high aDOT week 1, Hilton had come down a bit but his aDOT is trending back up and Jacoby Brissett may take a couple shots to him on Sunday.
Pierre Garcon ($6,100) and Aldrick Robinson ($3,100) could make for interesting plays in Week 5. Garcon has seen 33 targets so far in 2017. He looks to factor in heavily again this week. Brian Hoyer took some deep shots to Robinson once Marquise Goodwin went out, and it appears Goodwin will miss Week 5. If that holds true, you need exposure to Robinson this week in GPPs.
Like most weeks, I’m keeping my tight end pool small this week. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($3,500) gets the Cleveland Browns this week which is an auto-play week in and week out. He’s seeing involvement in the vaunted Jets passing game, so what could go wrong?
In GPPs, I’ll have exposure to both of the Chargers TEs in Hunter Henry ($3,800) and Antonio Gates ($3,300). The Giants have shown no desire to stop TEs and Philip Rivers isn’t afraid to go to either of his tight end options in the red zone. You can also play Evan Engram ($4,000) in the same game this week. He’s seen 30 targets over the first four weeks and seems to be going against the “rookie year tight ends don’t perform” narrative.