NFL DFS is all about stories. What story can you tell yourself about a game that is plausible and (if it happens) will provide value? Something that people won’t be on that can give you an edge. I’m going to do a couple of quick possibilities here that I think could be interesting this week if things break the right way. Remember, GPP lineup building is all about finding an edge. Don’t pay attention to these stories for cash, but throwing these scenarios into a GPP could pay off.
TY Hilton Goes Off Against the Vaunted Jags Secondary
Everyone’s been tweeting about how great the Jags secondary is for good reason, but if the Colts can get Hilton involved out of the slot that is a plus matchup. JuJu Smith-Schuster had himself a game against the Jags despite not seeing much action before that. We saw what TY can do with Brissett on the fast track at home.
Dallas Gets Up Big and Dak Flops
It’s not definite, heck, it’s not even terribly likely. But with CJ Beathard making his first start, the Dallas defense could get a couple of turnovers. What happens then? The Cowboys morph into the 2016 version and start to grind the clock. Zeke gets all of the work and Dez finishes the game with 3 catches for 40 yards. Dak throws for under 225 yards and 0 TDs and it’s a slower game then people are predicting.
Doug Marrone Lets Bortles Throw
Indy’s defense is God awful, they’re 27th in Pass DVOA. Leonard Fournette is banged up. Maybe, just maybe, the Jags have to throw a bit more than we’re accustomed to seeing them throw so far in 2017. If Blake Bortles is slinging the ball around the field, I think it makes sense to stack him with Marqise Lee or Allen Hurns. This is not a cash play or even something you should do in more than one lineup, but if the gamescript flips that way and they need to throw, it’ll be pay off to have a QB-WR stack that accounts for less than 20% of your cap.
The TEN-CLE Game Shoots Out
The TEN-CLE game is getting some of the most bets on the under this week. What if it doesn’t shake out that way though? What if Marcus Mariota connects with Eric Decker or Delanie Walker for a couple of early touchdowns. In a negative gamescript, that puts Duke Johnson Jr. into play right away. A game stack of this game will be incredibly low-owned and it only takes one or two big plays for this game to go well over the total.