All posts by Elliott Baas

Rich Hill is Absolutely Worth the Risk

The last time Rich Hill pitched a full season George W. Bush was the president, Barry Bonds broke the home run record, and Evan Longoria hadn’t yet reached the majors. To call Rich Hill a sleeper would be a miscategorization of his potential, he’s 37 years old and the baseball world is fully woken up on him. Hill’s injury woes have been well documented, and he frustrated fantasy owners last year with a blister that seemingly never healed, leaving a lot of people to proclaim that they won’t touch Hill under any circumstance, but passing on Hill’s upside completely is a dangerous game to play. He’s being taken as the 45th pitcher and 121st player per Fantasypros ADP, and his potential upside is worth the risk at that price. Don’t believe me? Think I’m crazy? Well let me explain.

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The Scariest Pitchers for 2017

With Halloween a mere seven months away, it seemed “fitting” to write about the scariest pitchers going into drafts, and the following three pitchers give me the spooks. All three of them flashed some serious warning signs last season, and none of those warning signs are priced into their current draft positions. The following pitchers are three I would avoid in all formats this season.

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What the Heck Do We Do with David Price Now?

When it was reported that David Price needed an MRI on his elbow, Red Sox fans and fantasy players alike were justifiably concerned. When the MRI results were deemed inconclusive and Price was flown out for a second opinion from the ominous Dr. James Andrews, there was even more concern, and it was assumed that Tommy John surgery was inevitable. In a surprising twist, the prognosis from Dr. Andrews was positive, meaning no surgery needed! In lieu of surgery Price will be shut down for 7-10 days minimum before resuming throwing, however in an interview with mlb.com Price said that “There is no timetable.” With all the different changes going on it’s difficult for  fantasy players it’s difficult to value Price right now.

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Identifying FIP and SIERA Outliers and Taking Advantage of Them for Fantasy Glory

Most fantasy players are aware of the pitching metrics FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, and use them when analyzing pitchers to draft for their team. These metrics are great at indicating when a pitcher may be outperforming his true skill, or have fallen victim to poor fortune. However, when analyzing pitchers it seems that a lot of people simply stake their flag in one of, or all of, the metrics to decide a player’s talent and value. This approach can be misguided because while FIP is calculated around the three outcomes a pitcher can control, walks, strikeouts, and home runs, it does not directly account for the types of contact a pitcher induces, the defense behind him, or in the case of xFIP, his ability to limit home runs. SIERA attempts to incorporate these factors by including net ground balls (GB-FB) and weighting them alongside a pitcher’s strikeout and walk rates. These stats however don’t paint a full picture, and can misguide you when drafting your team. So today, let me show you examples of how that can happen.

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Eric Hosmer Isn’t Special

Eric Hosmer is currently ranked 96th on our site’s fantasy baseball rankings, but I have him at 144th overall, the lowest among our writers by over 50 spots. In turn, Hosmer’s current ADP according to Fantasypros is 107th, which means he is a 9th round pick in a 12 team league. Hosmer would be a solid utility or a center Infield play if he was going five rounds later, but he’s not worth tying up that spot when you could get Danny Duffy, Danny Salazar, or Evan Longoria in the same area.

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2017 Preseason Fantasy Baseball Rankings

The team of writers have finished their first set of preseason rankings for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. By using the links below you can view their top 200 or simply view position by position. If you have any questions as always please find us on Twitter @Fantasyreport_

Top 200

Starting Pitchers

Relievers

Outfielders

Catchers

Shortstop

First Base

Second Base

Third Base

 

Top 200 Fantasy Baseball Preseason Rankings

The team of writers have finished their first set of preseason rankings for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. Throughout the week we will be releasing our positional rankings, but wanted to start with providing you this. If you have any questions as always please find us on Twitter @Fantasyreport_

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Chris Archer: The Undervalued Ace

Fantasy owners yearn to find the diamond in the rough, that late round sleeper that turns into a superstar that you can brag to your friends about, but we get so caught up trying to find a breakout that we often miss value in the middle rounds, and I believe an example of that for some people is Chris Archer. Archer is currently ranked 15th among starting pitchers and 60th overall on Fantasypros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR),yet I have him as my 47th Overall player and have him ranked 10th among starting pitchers. I want to show you why and why I believe you should target Archer.

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