All posts by Mike Garza

Buyer Beware: Regression Candidates

DRAFTERS BEWARE!! Year after year there are a number of up and coming players who have us all thinking they have arrived. Breakout years and long off seasons have a funny way of making owners over-draft and over-project; yet, the players we all grow to love don’t always provide the return we expect.

Yeah but past performance is an indicator of future success…right?

I’m here to say that this isn’t always true. Regression traditionally has a negative connotation; Let me be clear that it DOES NOT mean that a player will be bad or that they shouldn’t be drafted, but it simply signifies a return to a previous, usually less favorable state.  

Consider this: We all remember 2013 when Peyton Manning went absolutely crazy and threw for an NFL record 55 TD’s and 5,477 yards.  The next season, he regressed… BIG TIME.  The next season he threw 16 less TD’s (29% less) and 750 fewer yards (14% less), yet still finished as a top 5 fantasy player. Projecting regression is all about recognizing the past versus present situations, noting the changes in between and deciding how they translate to future performance. Here are a few players that I fear are unlikely to repeat their 2016 performances:

Continue reading Buyer Beware: Regression Candidates

8 Ways To Revitalize Your Fantasy League

Calling all commissioners!! August is in the air, and we all know what that means… fantasy drafting season! We’ve come a long way in the fantasy world, from basic manual calculation of stats based on sports page box scores all the way to the varying and exciting ways we are able to play today. Yet, even the best of leagues can sometimes feel a bit…typical. The same old thing year in and year out gets tiresome after a while, and every now and then your league needs a bit of a makeover to get owners feeling just as excited as they were on Day 1. Take a look at some of the methods you can use to add a spark to your league and really start the season off with a bang:  Continue reading 8 Ways To Revitalize Your Fantasy League