DRAFTERS BEWARE!! Year after year there are a number of up and coming players who have us all thinking they have arrived. Breakout years and long off seasons have a funny way of making owners over-draft and over-project; yet, the players we all grow to love don’t always provide the return we expect.
Yeah but past performance is an indicator of future success…right?
I’m here to say that this isn’t always true. Regression traditionally has a negative connotation; Let me be clear that it DOES NOT mean that a player will be bad or that they shouldn’t be drafted, but it simply signifies a return to a previous, usually less favorable state.
Consider this: We all remember 2013 when Peyton Manning went absolutely crazy and threw for an NFL record 55 TD’s and 5,477 yards. The next season, he regressed… BIG TIME. The next season he threw 16 less TD’s (29% less) and 750 fewer yards (14% less), yet still finished as a top 5 fantasy player. Projecting regression is all about recognizing the past versus present situations, noting the changes in between and deciding how they translate to future performance. Here are a few players that I fear are unlikely to repeat their 2016 performances: