The Wire: Analyzing Week 1 Add’s & Drop’s

We’ve made it through Week 1 of the fantasy baseball season. Some of you are feeling great about your championship 2017 season already, while oOthers are analyzing 2018 mock drafts and hating themselves for drafting Gary Sanchez. All kidding aside, you’re likely somewhere in between, because you know it’s too early to panic, but not too early to try to fix some deficiencies in your fantasy roster composition. Take some time to look at who’s available, research the type of player they are and what they’ll likely become, and lastly; look at the player(s) you’re giving up to add that free agent. The last thing you want to do is drop a proven commodity that started off slow (yes, there are Yahoo leagues where Todd Frazier was dropped, and no, dropping players of that caliber will not be discussed here). Conversely, if you’re going to cut ties with a player you liked enough to draft fairly recently, you’ll likely want to get more than flavor-of-the-week output from the free agent. All this being said, let’s look at some interesting players that found themselves on the Yahoo Fantasy Baseball “Most Added/Most Dropped” list after Week 1. Bear in mind these ownership numbers are at press time, and may fluctuate by the time you read this.

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Dylan Bundy Needs to be Added in All Leagues

We are just one week into the season, and it’s easy to overreact to hot starts and early slumps, we forget this is a long process as we buy the hype way early and want to make big roster moves to help uswin our league. This idea is dangerous and sometimes foolish as paitence is a birtue in fantasy baseball, but there is  one player that had a great start and needs to be added in most formats, and that is Orioles starter Dylan Bundy, who is owned in just 57% of Yahoo leagues and 49% of ESPN leagues. This early in the season any add/drops made should be rationally aggressive, with a long term purpose in mind. It’s okay to chase hot starts as long as you understand the risk balance between who you are adding and who you are dropping, and you do some cursory research before making a move. Breakouts and league winners emerge in April, and Dylan Bundy has the makings of one.

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Weekend pitchers to help you win your head to head matchup!

It’s the end of the opening week of baseball and it’s been lovely. Roto teams are busy projecting their finish on a weeks worth of stats, and head-to-head teams are flexing their muscles trying to win that first match-up.

If you find yourself behind headed into this weekend and need some help to squeak out a victory in a few pitching categories, we’ve got your back! Take a look at these match-ups happening over the weekend.

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Three Deep League Fantasy Free Agents

The 2017 MLB season will have already begun, you’ve drafted your fantasy squad, and like the cat that ate the canary, you’re feeling fat, sassy & proud of your impeccable fantasy knowledge. As far as you’re concerned, a championship for you is as good as guaranteed, in the bag, checks in the mail, turn out the lgihts the party is over, or whatever cliche you prefer. Then all of the sudden, a black cloud opened up and rained all over your post-draft parade. You found out that your mid-round pitching target will be missing two months with a soggy arm or you realize you only drafted one first basemen, you find out your league commissioner didn’t set IR spots, all things that sudden have you not as confident as before. All of these things can deflate a fantasy owner before the first regular season pitch is even thrown. This is especially true in deep leagues, where it may seem like all the “good players” or household names are owned out of the gate.

Let this article point you to a few players owned in less than 20% of Yahoo Leagues who you might consider adding as an injury replacement or flat out rostering. I’ve included their Steamer Projected Stats, made up of their projected HR/RBI/R/SB/AVG for the season. They could help you eek out some head-to-head wins in the interim, and possibly even long term payoffs in season long leagues.

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PGA DFS: Masters Tournament

Russell Henley played his way into the Masters field with an impressive final round 65 on Sunday. But, that’s all the time I want to spend on the Shell Houston Open because it’s Masters Week. Masters Week is one of my favorite times of year for many reasons. This year, the Masters gives us our first crack at a Millionaire Maker in PGA DFS.

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What to Do When You Hate Your Team

Nothing feels worse than exiting the draft room and hating the team you just spent the last three hours building, but fantasy owners across all sports have been there at one point or another. We feel like we reached on every pick, like our season is already over, and worst of all, we feel powerless in this situation. Whether it manifests itself through aggression or apathy, don’t allow dejection to overtake your actions when managing this team. You can work your way out of a bad situation and contend regardless of your draft missteps. Nobody is eliminated in the first month, not Carlos Carrasco owners, Steven Matz believers, or people that went Trea Turner 1.1. By following the first four steps of my twelve-step program, you can turn your team around.

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3 Up & 3 Down – End of Spring Edition

Here we are, just days away from the greatest day of the year, in my opinion. Opening day! Where every team starts back at square one, and dreams of October are still alive for each and every team. Opening day also serves as the official green flag for everyone’s fantasy leagues.

I will start with the caveat: Spring Training stats mean nothing. Less than nothing. I can’t tell you how many times someone has looked great in the spring and plays terribly once the season starts. We don’t base things off Spring Training numbers, but they can confirm suspicions we have about a player. They can also give you an idea of which way that player is trending based on the clubhouse talk given from their managers and GMs. So let’s take one more quick look at a few players who have been trending up or down since spring training started.

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Kyle Schwarber is Being Overdrafted

According to Fantasypros aggregate ADP, Kyle Schwarber is going as the 20th outfielder and 67th player off the board in drafts, ahead of outfielders like Mark Trumbo, Justin Upton, Jose Bautista, and Khris Davis. After an amazing rookie season in 2015 and a miraculous return from a knee injury to play in the 2016 World Series, fantasy owners are seeing nothing but roses when looking at Schwarber’s potential. Schwarber is being drafted like a surefire top 20 outfielder, but there is still plenty of risk which is not being factored into his draft day price. As his value currently stands, Schwarber is undraftable in leagues where is only outfield eligible.

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A New Way to Look at Special Teams Scoring

Over the course of the previous few seasons, there has been a growing trend of removing the kicker position from fantasy football leagues. Most feel that kicker scoring is either too random to predict (there is good data in the ethos to state otherwise) or should not have as big of an impact on fantasy as say a WR or RB. For those that believe the later, I agree, kickers should not determine outcomes of fantasy games or championships. Just because Justin Tucker goes 4/4 from 50+ on a Sunday in December, doesn’t mean that your team is entitled to win a league playoff game or the ultimate prize, a fantasy football championship.

We do have to remember that kickers are people too, not just on the field to be ridiculed when they miss a PAT or a tackle in the open field. They do belong in fantasy football, but I do believe they should have a slightly reduced role. The slack could be picked up by another aspect of special teams that is typically grouped in with defenses or an afterthought altogether, the return game.

In standard scoring settings (I’ll be using ESPN) all return TDs count for 6 points for an owner’s DST with no regard for the amount of return yardage that is associated with said return. Don’t get me wrong, there are leagues that do reward return yardage to deepen the pool of playable WRs and RBs, but this would be the grouping together of the “3rd phase” of the game into a cohesive scoring system. With a couple of small changes, the issue of kickers determining too much throughout a fantasy season can be addressed and properly grouped along naturally with the return game in what I’m calling Team Special Teams. Continue reading A New Way to Look at Special Teams Scoring

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