Yes, it’s early; we’re just 2+ weeks in to a very long season. While we don’t have a lot to go on, statistically, I wanted to dissect a piece of what we’ve seen so far. Steven Martano just gave us a lesson on Stabilization Rates, so remember, a lot can change. With that said, I want to take a look at strand rates, or Left On Base (LOB%) and see if we can learn anything about early performances so far in 2014.
Player A: ERA 5.06, 1.18 WHIP
Player B: ERA 2.36, 1.12 WHIP
Now this is easy, right? Both because the player’s name is in the article title, and anytime a writer uses this device, the answer is usually that both are the same player. In this case that guy is Matt Cain pre-allstar break and post allstar break. Cain-er “the gamer” finished the year with a 4.00 ERA, but seemed to pitch much worse than that the whole year. This begs the question, what do we do with Matt Cain moving forward for fantasy purposes, and what is a reasonable expectation? Should we draft him according to his track record as it streches back nearly six years of pure horsepower material, or was last year a warning that Cain is no longer able to perform?
Much debate this offseason has centered on the fantasy baseball community’s evaluation of Chris “Crush” Davis. Is he the second coming of the Mighty Casey, or is he just this era’s Brady Anderson? As with most questions like this, the answer is somewhere in between.
As we get closer to the start of the 2014 MLB season, you’ll see a lot of prognosticators making predictions for the upcoming season.You can add this one to this list! Never wanting to miss out on the fun, I thought I’d take a swing at some bold predictions for the upcoming fantasy season. Don’t forget to check out our new podcast, ‘Caught Looking Fantasy Baseball Podcast’, find it on ITunes and subscribe! Also you can find me on Twitter, @RyNoonan.
Ah, baseball season. My favorite time of the year. Well, actually this is my favorite time of the year, fantasy baseball PREP season! I love getting ready for drafts. With that in mind, here’s a quick preview of my top 25 players heading into the 2014 season. You’ll see that I put a higher premium on elite bats and I tend to not worry about position scarcity in the first couple rounds, leaning heavily on offense when constructing my roster. I’ve made note of each players current ADP here as well. Questions or comments are welcome below, and you can find me on Twitter, @RyNoonan .
We are seeing a trend where young stars get locked up to large contracts before entering the FA market, but as always, this offseason, there were mid-tier and lower-tier starting pitchers who changed teams. Fantasy leagues are won on the margins via gems drafted at the back-end of a draft, waiver wire pickups, platooning and properly streamed starters (particularly in head-to-head leagues). Below we attempt to analyze whether or not the changes in home parks for the starting pitchers provide additional value, or create a ‘stay away’ situation. By using three characteristics outside of the control of the pitcher, we can make assumptions and projections based on last year’s numbers to develop 2014 projections. I have taken a look at all ten pitchers whose average draft position is in the top 100 for SPs.